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    OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP /DE/ (OXY)

    Q2 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Jan 10, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$58.53Last close (Aug 8, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$58.64Open (Aug 9, 2024)
    Price Change
    $0.11(+0.19%)
    • Strong progress and industry interest in Oxy's STRATOS Direct Air Capture project, including a significant agreement with Microsoft for the sale of 500,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide removal credits over 6 years, making it the largest such purchase to date. The project is on track for start-up next summer, with potential cost improvements and strong support from visionary vendors.
    • Oxy is ahead of schedule on debt reduction targets, with high confidence to achieve the $15 billion target by the end of 2026 or early 2027, supported by a deep inventory of assets and strong operational cash flows.
    • Positive developments in Gulf of Mexico operations, including bringing online a new 15,000 barrel per day well in May due to recent seismic data insights, and the potential to add substantial low-cost reserves through ongoing waterflood projects.
    • Uncertainty regarding future cash flows due to asset divestitures: Occidental has sold or agreed to sell about $1 billion worth of assets but has not provided details on the lost cash flow from these divestitures, creating uncertainty about future earnings.
    • Reliance on unproven technology like STRATOS: The success of the direct air capture project STRATOS is unproven, and potential partners may be adopting a "wait-and-see" approach, posing risks to future growth plans.
    • Delay in shareholder returns due to debt reduction focus: Occidental is prioritizing reducing its debt to $15 billion, potentially delaying share repurchases and other shareholder returns until 2026 or early 2027. ,
    1. CrownRock Acquisition Synergies
      Q: What are the synergies and production outlook for CrownRock?
      A: Management is enthusiastic about the CrownRock assets, considering them among the best they've seen. Despite some operational downtime and a softer production guide, they still aim to reach 170,000 barrels per day, though this may be delayed. They see significant synergies in well costs, operational efficiencies, and water management that can improve performance and reduce costs. Capital spending is expected to remain steady at around $950 million with 5 rigs.

    2. Debt Reduction and Asset Sales
      Q: What's the progress on deleveraging and asset sales?
      A: Management is confident in achieving their debt reduction target of $15 billion by the end of 2026 or early 2027. They have a deep inventory of assets and are evaluating further divestitures but are not ready to discuss details. They believe they can maximize value without compromising their ability to meet debt targets.

    3. Ecopetrol JV and CrownRock
      Q: Why didn't Ecopetrol participate in CrownRock, and what's the impact?
      A: Oxy initially wanted to acquire 100% of CrownRock but had an agreement allowing Ecopetrol to purchase up to 49% in the area. They negotiated a 30% interest, but the deal was not approved by the Colombian government. As a result, Oxy retains full ownership of CrownRock. If the JV were discontinued, interests would be divided 51% Oxy and 49% Ecopetrol. The JV production is around 40,000 barrels per day net to Oxy.

    4. Capital Allocation and Share Buybacks
      Q: What's the plan for capital allocation, including share buybacks and preferred stock?
      A: Management states that capital allocation depends on the macro environment. Acquisitions like CrownRock can deliver better value than share buybacks. Once debt is reduced to $15 billion, they plan to resume share repurchases. If they can buy enough shares back to trigger the $4 per share dividend threshold, they would also start buying back the preferred stock.

    5. STRATOS Project and Microsoft Deal
      Q: What is the update on the STRATOS direct air capture project?
      A: The STRATOS project is on track for start-up next summer, with 1,200 people currently on-site. They recently signed a significant agreement with Microsoft, marking the largest carbon dioxide removal sale to date. They are incorporating learnings to improve performance and reduce costs, and see future opportunities for cost reductions and operational synergies.

    6. 2025 CapEx and Production Guidance
      Q: What's the outlook for CapEx and production in 2025?
      A: While it's early to provide specific numbers, management indicates that activity levels at CrownRock will remain the same next year. They believe they can do more with less through operational efficiencies. The company continues to evaluate capital allocation and development plans, aiming to optimize returns.

    7. Gulf of Mexico Activities
      Q: What's the plan for Gulf of Mexico tiebacks and exploration?
      A: Exploration activity will not be as aggressive due to the use of data analytics and AI to better understand subsurface complexities. They have ongoing projects, including recent discoveries at Ocotillo and Tiberius, which can tie back to existing facilities. They are also designing waterflood projects capable of commencing execution next year, potentially adding substantial low-cost reserves.

    8. Rockies Production Outlook
      Q: How is the Rockies production and activity expected to progress?
      A: The Rockies have contributed strongly, but activity will be lower in the second half as they rework development plans, especially in the Powder River Basin. They anticipate steady activity in the DJ Basin and plan to present a competitive case for the Powder River Basin in 2025.

    9. Service Costs and CapEx Efficiency
      Q: Are you seeing any softness in oilfield service costs?
      A: The company is seeing improvements in capital efficiency and well costs, with a 10% reduction year-to-date in well costs. Onshore U.S., they see deflation continuing, expecting over 10% reduction in drilling and completion costs between last summer and the end of this year. They also note significant deflation in OCTG costs and improvements due to contractor efficiency and technologies.

    10. Midstream Business and Matterhorn Start-up
      Q: What's the expectation for Matterhorn's start-up in the midstream business?
      A: Management expects the Matterhorn project to start up mid- to late quarter, based on the last update they've received.

    11. Asset Sale Program and Lost Cash Flow
      Q: What can you say about lost cash flow from asset sales?
      A: Management cannot provide details yet because they have not made decisions on the next set of divestitures and are still evaluating them.

    Research analysts covering OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP /DE/.